Overview
The field of protein structure prediction has undergone revolutionary transformation in 2024-2025, with multi-agent systems and ensemble methods emerging as dominant paradigms for achieving unprecedented accuracy and capturing conformational diversity. These developments build upon the foundational work recognized by the 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry, awarded to Demis Hassabis and John Jumper for AlphaFold's groundbreaking contributions to protein structure prediction. The prize, announced in October 2024, highlighted how AI had solved the 50-year-old protein folding problem, with AlphaFold2 being used by more than two million researchers across 190 countries.
AlphaFold3 and Diffusion-Based Architecture
Revolutionary Diffusion Approach
AlphaFold3, released in May 2024, represents a paradigm shift from its predecessor through its adoption of diffusion-based architecture capable of predicting joint structures of complexes including proteins, nucleic acids, small molecules, ions, and modified residues. The diffusion process, akin to AI image generators, starts with a cloud of atoms and converges over multiple steps to produce accurate molecular structures. This approach demonstrates at least 50% improvement in accuracy for protein interactions with other molecules compared to existing methods, fundamentally transforming drug discovery applications.
Real-world applications documented in 2024 include SARS-CoV-2 vaccine optimization and identification of potential viral protein inhibitors, demonstrating the model's immediate impact on pharmaceutical development.
Open-Source Alternatives
Boltz-1: Democratizing Protein Prediction
The democratization of advanced protein structure prediction accelerated significantly in late 2024 with the release of Boltz-1 by MIT researchers in November 2024. Developed by the MIT Jameel Clinic team including Jeremy Wohlwend, Gabriele Corso, and colleagues, Boltz-1 became the first fully open-source model achieving AlphaFold3-level accuracy under the MIT license.
On CASP15 benchmarks, Boltz-1 demonstrated superior protein-ligand performance with 65% LDDT-PLI compared to Chai-1's 40%, and achieved 83% proportion of DockQ>0.23 in protein-protein docking versus Chai-1's 76%. The complete release of training code, inference code, model weights, and datasets has democratized access to state-of-the-art structural biology modeling.
Chai-1: Commercial Alternative
Chai-1, released in October 2024 as a multi-modal foundation model, provides another commercial alternative with a 77% success rate on the PoseBusters benchmark and 0.849 prediction for Cα LDDT on CASP15 protein monomers. Unlike AlphaFold3's commercial restrictions, Chai-1 offers open model access suitable for commercial drug discovery applications, with model weights and inference code available through both Python packages and web interfaces.
The system's ability to operate in single-sequence mode without multiple sequence alignments while preserving most performance, combined with support for experimental restraints that boost performance by double-digit percentages, makes it particularly versatile for diverse research applications.
Multi-Agent LLM Systems: ProtAgents
The integration of Large Language Models into protein discovery reached maturity with ProtAgents, published in Digital Discovery in May 2024 by Ghafarollahi and Buehler from MIT's Laboratory for Atomistic and Molecular Mechanics. This platform employs five specialized AI agents powered by GPT-4:
- User Proxy: Receives queries from researchers
- Planner: Develops computational strategy
- Assistant: Executes computational tools
- Critic: Evaluates results and handles errors
- Group Chat Manager: Orchestrates communication
The system integrates diverse capabilities including OmegaFold and Chroma for protein structure folding, physics-based simulations for vibrational analysis, ProteinForceGPT for mechanical property prediction, and knowledge retrieval from scientific literature.
Validated Capabilities
Four validation experiments demonstrated successful knowledge retrieval and analysis, de novo protein generation using Chroma, structure-targeted design based on CATH classifications, and investigation of relationships between secondary structure and mechanical properties. The authors emphasize that their system transcends purely data-driven tools by integrating physics-based modeling, enabling comprehensive protein discovery combining machine learning with domain-specific simulations.
Ensemble Methods: MULTICOM4
Ensemble-based approaches have proven critical for overcoming single-structure limitations inherent in deterministic prediction models. MULTICOM4, developed at the University of Missouri-Columbia, represents an integrative system using diverse MSA generation, large-scale model sampling, and ensemble quality assessment strategies combining individual QA methods to improve AlphaFold2 and AlphaFold3 predictions.
In CASP16 evaluations conducted in 2024, predictors based on MULTICOM4 ranked among top performers out of 120 participants, consistently outperforming standard AlphaFold3 servers. The system's technical innovations include:
- Generating diverse MSAs using multiple protein sequence databases
- Different alignment tools and domain-based alignments
- Extensive model sampling to explore large conformation spaces
- Multiple complementary model quality assessment methods
- Model clustering to rank and select final structures
For protein complex prediction in CASP16's Phase 0, where stoichiometry information was unavailable, MULTICOM_human achieved a TM-score of 0.752 and DockQ score of 0.584. The open-source release on GitHub has made these advanced ensemble techniques accessible to the broader research community.
Conformational Ensemble Generation
BioEmu: Breakthrough in Efficiency
Addressing the limitation that traditional prediction models produce single static structures, researchers in 2024 developed sophisticated methods for generating conformational ensembles representing protein dynamics. Sub-sampling input multiple sequence alignments and increasing prediction numbers leads to structural ensembles capturing different physiologically-relevant conformations from identical sequences. These AI-based methods rapidly predict conformational landscapes with strong correlations to experimentally-measured relative state populations.
BioEmu Performance
BioEmu, developed by Microsoft Research AI for Science and posted as a preprint in December 2024, represents a breakthrough in ensemble generation efficiency. This generative deep learning system produces thousands of statistically independent samples from protein structure ensembles per hour on a single GPU, achieving speedup advantages of four to five orders of magnitude over molecular dynamics simulations.
BioEmu samples functionally relevant conformational changes ranging from cryptic pocket formation to large-scale domain rearrangements, with relative free energy errors around 1 kcal/mol validated against over 200 milliseconds of MD simulation and experimental protein stabilities. The training dataset encompassed more than 750,000 experimental measurements from the MEGAscale dataset and 25 milliseconds of all-atom MD simulations of 271 wildtype proteins and 21,458 mutants.
Diffusion-Based Approaches
Diffold transforms AlphaFold2 into a diffusion model implementing conformation-based processes for robust sampling of diverse protein conformations based solely on amino acid sequences. Multi-agent reinforcement learning approaches like REAP (Reinforcement Learning-based Adaptive Sampling) have demonstrated efficiency in sampling rare states along user-defined collective variables, successfully modeling loop motion of Src kinase and driving large-scale conformational transitions of transporters.
Molecular Dynamics Integration
LLM-Based Automation
The automation of molecular dynamics workflows through LLM-based agents represents another significant development in 2024. MDCrow, an agentic LLM assistant, uses chain-of-thought reasoning over 40 expert-designed tools for handling files, setting up simulations, analyzing outputs, and retrieving information from literature and databases. Built using Langchain with specialized tools for OpenMM, MDCrow automates MD workflows with reduced setup time and improved accessibility.
MDAgent, a framework for guiding large models in automatically generating, executing, and refining simulation code for molecular dynamics, demonstrated 42.22% reduction in average task time compared to traditional models based on expert evaluation. The system uses text-to-code generation with datasets of 167 scripts from manual production, LAMMPS documentation, and online resources, effectively automating implementation of simulation programs in materials science.
MD-LLM-1, obtained by fine-tuning Mistral 7B, shows that training on one conformational state enables prediction of other conformational states for systems like T4 lysozyme and Mad2 proteins, demonstrating the potential for transfer learning in protein dynamics prediction.
CASP16 Assessment
The CASP16 assessment conducted in 2024 reaffirmed the dominance of deep learning approaches while revealing remaining challenges in protein structure prediction. For protein monomers, the results indicate that single-domain protein fold prediction is nearly solved, with no target folds missed across all evaluation units. Winning strategies included AlphaFold3 utilization, enhanced MSAs, and refined modeling constructs.
Remaining Challenges
However, protein complex prediction remains challenging, with fewer than 25% of protein multimers predicted with high quality. The assessment highlighted continued innovation in ensemble methods and multi-model consensus approaches. While AlphaFold2 and AlphaFold3 achieved high reliability in protein domain folding, the limitations in generating diverse structural ensembles motivate ongoing development of multi-agent systems and ensemble-based methodologies.
These approaches address the fundamental constraint that diffusion-based models generally produce ensembles peaked around single conformations with minimal structural heterogeneity, emphasizing the continued importance of multi-agent and ensemble approaches for capturing the full complexity of protein dynamics.
References
- The Nobel Prize. (2024). The Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2024. NobelPrize.org. https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/chemistry/2024/press-release/
- Google DeepMind. (2024). AlphaFold 3 predicts the structure and interactions of all of life's molecules. https://blog.google/technology/ai/google-deepmind-isomorphic-alphafold-3-ai-model/
- Hussein, H. M., et al. (2024). Review of AlphaFold 3: Transformative advances in drug design and therapeutics. Cureus. PMC11292590. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11292590/
- MIT News. (2024). MIT researchers introduce Boltz-1, a fully open-source model for predicting biomolecular structures. https://news.mit.edu/2024/researchers-introduce-boltz-1-open-source-model-predicting-biomolecular-structures-1217
- Chai Discovery Team. (2024). Chai-1: Decoding the molecular interactions of life. bioRxiv. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.10.10.615955v1
- Ghafarollahi, A., & Buehler, M. J. (2024). ProtAgents: Protein discovery via large language model multi-agent collaborations combining physics and machine learning. Digital Discovery. PMC11235180. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11235180/
- Cheng, J., et al. (2024). Improving AlphaFold2 and 3-based protein complex structure prediction with MULTICOM4 in CASP16. bioRxiv. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.03.06.641913v2
- Lewis, S., et al. (2024). Scalable emulation of protein equilibrium ensembles with generative deep learning. bioRxiv. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.12.05.626885v1
- White, A. D., et al. (2025). MDCrow: Automating molecular dynamics workflows with large language models. arXiv:2502.09565. https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.09565
- Abriata, L. (2025). State of the art of protein structure prediction as of 2025, as evaluated by CASP16. Medium. https://medium.com/advances-in-biological-science/state-of-the-art-of-protein-structure-prediction-as-of-2025-as-evaluated-by-casp16-0c423636bc97